[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N23W 2N38W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM
OF 4N FROM 9W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 17W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US
AND THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE SECOND RE-INFORCING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO 27N90W RAPIDLY
WEAKENING TO INLAND OVER NE MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 130 CONTINUES ACROSS
THE GULF FROM S TEXAS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS
MEXICO...THE DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE GULF IS PREVENTING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
ACROSS THE GULF S OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. MODERATE/STRONG
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE E/CENTRAL US INTO THE
GULF AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US
AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON TUE. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE SE US
INTO THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS THROUGH 32N71W ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR
22N81W WITH THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N78W ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE PRIMARY FRONT N OF
27N FROM 61W-71W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT TO THE SECOND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA NE
TO BEYOND 32N61W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N40W SSW TO
20N48W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR
32N31W EXTENDING SW TO 23N45W CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO NEAR 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A
1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N42W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM NEAR 18N30W N TO BEYOND 32N23W.

$$
WALLACE


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