[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 3N20W 2N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 9W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
22N35W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE W GULF W OF
90W WITH THE AXIS ALONG 100W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US AND THE E GULF AND INTO THE W
ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING NE TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF
ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W TO 27N88W WEAKENING TO
26N93W. BROAD SUBTROPICAL JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 150 EXTENDS
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE SE US THEN DIPPING S OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE W ATLC. ALTHOUGH UPPER TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO...THE DRY UPPER AIR OVER THE
GULF IS PREVENTING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. SCATTERED COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF S OF THE COLD FRONT.
MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
E/CENTRAL US INTO THE GULF AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US
AND W ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE/
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN
INCREASE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ON TUE. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY
WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE FAR SE
US INTO THE W ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING NE TOWARD THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS OVER
BERMUDA ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN
ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH THE SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE
PRIMARY FRONT N OF 26N W OF 58W WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT TO
80W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO BEYOND
32N55W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N35W SW TO 18N45W AND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N29W EXTENDING SW
TO 23N42W CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO
NEAR 21N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
180 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS BISECTED BY
THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
32N43W. UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING ALONG 23W FROM
18N TO BEYOND 32N.

$$
WALLACE



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