[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282321
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 2N35W 2N45W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS COVER MUCH OF THE
GULF SE OF A LINE FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WRN CUBA...AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. CLEAR
SKIES SEEN TO THE NW OF THE SAME LINE WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE WRN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE. OVERALL THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THOUGH A DEWPOINT CONTRAST IS SOMEWHAT
EVIDENT. REGARDLESS SUSPECT WILL HAVE TO DISSIPATE THIS BOUNDARY
SOON AS THE 1032 MB HIGH OVER N TEXAS TAKES OVER THE GULF SFC
PATTERN. ASSOCIATED NLY WINDS 15-20 KT WILL BEGIN VEERING E TO
SE FROM W TO E DURING MON/TUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES E THROUGH THE
SE U.S. MID TO UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE ERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY EXTENDS S INTO THE NRN GULF...THOUGH UPPER FLOW IS
MOSTLY ZONAL THIS EVENING. DRY AIR DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE GULF OUTSIDE OF THE REGION OVER THE FRONT NEAR FLORIDA
STRAITS AND A FEW CIRRUS PUSHING INTO THE WRN PORTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN.
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W SW
TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DEEP LAYER
CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 120NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SE AND EXTENDS
FROM E CUBA TO BELIZE LATE MON AND DISSIPATE TUE. NLY WINDS
15-20 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXPERIENCING MODERATE TRADES...WITH A MAXIMUM
REMAINING NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AROUND 25 KT. RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN...WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR SEEN W OF 75W. MORE UPPER
MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS SEEN E OF 75W WITH SW FLOW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SW N ATLC THIS EVENING...ATTACHED
TO A QUICKLY NE MOVING 998 MB LOW OFFSHORE CAPE HATTERAS. AS OF
2100 UTC...FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N73W AND CONTINUES SW
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 350 NM E OF THE FRONT MAINLY N OF 25N...WHILE BROKEN COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING IN WAKE OF THE FRONT.
THE INCREASING NW TO N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD
ANOTHER MODERATE NW/N SWELL THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID TO
LATE WEEK...BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS LARGE AS THE
SWELL CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE AREA THAT WAS GENERATED BY THE
POWERFUL STORM THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES A
COUPLE DAYS AGO. UPPER PATTERN OVER THE WRN ATLC DOMINATED BY
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ABOUT TO PUSH OFF THE
EAST COAST. THIS IS TRANSPORTING A PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE E TO
50W N OF 23N. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A 1022 MB HIGH IS NEAR
30N51W WHICH WILL CONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY E TO NE THROUGH MON.
HIGH IS BEHIND THE OLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N33W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 22N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
120 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 47W. THIS ACTIVITY ALSO SUPPORTED BY
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG
32N41W 22N49W...AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO ITS E. THIS RIDGE IS
CARRYING THE DEBRIS MOISTURE OVER THE CONVECTION E TO 20W. DEEP
LAYER LOW OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA HAS A 1011 MB SFC
LOW MOVING INTO NW AFRICA NEAR 28N14W. THIS LOW WILL DISSIPATE
DURING MON AS IT MOVES INLAND.


$$
WILLIS




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