[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N35W 3N45W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 70-90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 12W-16W AND FROM
25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE E U.S. IS
DIGGING ACROSS THE E GULF. AT 1500 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW NEAR 33N75W SSW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO S MEXICO NEAR 16N92W.
DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS APPROACHING THE E
METROPOLITAN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT
PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 26N78W TO 21N82W CROSSING
CENTRAL CUBA. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS STILL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. A SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD
FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. THIS FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF
GIVING THE AREA MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS. A SUBTROPICAL JET
WITH SWLY WINDS OF 110 TO 140 CROSSES THE GULF FROM NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC ADVECTING UPPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUE WITH
THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS MOST THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SWLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING SOME MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EPAC
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MON.
EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 25 KT JUST OFF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. AT LOW LEVELS...NELY WINDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING
SOME MOISTURE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
REACH WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 30N50W CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AS THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE ENTERS THE W ATLC. SWLY WINDS
UP TO GALE FORCE ARE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM E OF FRONT N OF 28N. AN
ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS AFFECTING THE NW BAHAMAS AND
CENTRAL CUBA. FREEPORT REPORTED HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OF
24 KT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH HISPANIOLA
DOMINATING THE AREA W OF 60W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
E-CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING SW TO 23N50W CONTINUING AS
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO NEAR
22N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT E OF 50W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N FROM 40W-52W.
A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING N
ALONG 29/30W . A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E
ATLC WITH A COUPLE OF SFC LOWS...ONE IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS. HIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E
INLAND OVER W AFRICA THEN DISSIPATE.

$$
GR






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