[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2355 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 4N20W 3N40W 2N52W. ISOLATED
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 21W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 90NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 32W-45W. AXIS IS MORE ACTIVE THIS EVENING THAN IT HAS
BEEN THE LAST FEW.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE JUST S OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
CONTINUES TO PUSH E ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS TONIGHT. AS OF
2100 UTC THE 1006 MB LOW WAS NEAR 28N91W...THAT HAS A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E ACROSS THE NRN GULF TO 28N84W AND A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO.
RADAR...SATELLITE...AND LIGHTNING DATA DEPICT MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W-91W.
WINDS/SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE STEADILY AROUND THE
LOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE NE GULF
TONIGHT AND INTO THE SW N ATLC TOMORROW MORNING. REFER TO GULF
OFFSHORE WATER FORECAST MIAOFFNT4 FOR DETAILS ON THIS FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
A MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ZIPPING THROUGH ERN TEXAS AND INTO
WRN LOUISIANA. PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE ALSO SEEN FEEDING INTO
THE SYSTEM...WITH WV IMAGERY SHOWING EXTENSIVE MID TO UPPER
MOISTURE WITHIN 250NM OF A LINE FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
OLD COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY OVER THE CARIB
WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND ERN CUBA. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED
SHOWERS SEEN BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND CENTRAL CUBA. FAIRLY QUIET
ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIB...AS EXTENSIVE DRY MID TO UPPER AIR
HOVERS AROUND WEAK UPPER RIDGING. FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
SEEN PUSHING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN W OF 75W...DOWNSTREAM FROM
CONVECTION IN THE NE PACIFIC. WEAK SFC PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT E
TO SE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIB...WHILE MODERATE TRADES EXIST
ELSEWHERE...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE SUN AND EXTENDS FROM E CUBA
TO BELIZE LATE MON AND DISSIPATES TUE. SEE OFFSHORE WATER
FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT3 FOR DETAILS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1022 MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING E THROUGH THE SW N ATLC
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N42W AND
CONTINUES SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW TO MID CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 210NM NW
OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS NOTED
ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT E OF 70W. THE FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A
POWERFUL LOW SPINNING OVER NEWFOUNDLAND. ASSOCIATED
STRONG...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SE THROUGH
EXPOSED BEACHES IN THE CARIBBEAN INTO SUN AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG
NORTH EXPOSED BEACHES OF PUERTO RICO -- SEE STATEMENTS FROM WFO
SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFO. WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SW ATLC
OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WILL ALSO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AS THE LOW IN THE GULF MOVES QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA.
SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAHSFAT2 FOR DETAILS. A
WEAK 1020 MB SFC HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS NEAR 22N46W.
UPPER PATTERN OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN. DEEP LAYER LOW/TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE E ATLC...WITH A 1007 MB SFC LOW ABOUT 150 NM SW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 26N20W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO
18N22W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT AS
ABUNDANT AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE
N OF 24N AND E OF 17W. LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING
THROUGH SUN AS IT MOVES INTO NW AFRICA.

$$
WILLIS


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