[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280509
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N19W 3N26W 3N43W 1N52W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 28W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS RAPIDLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SE US
AND THE N GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER NW GEORGIA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW OFF THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA NEAR 28N88W SW ALONG 23N93W TO E
MEXICO JUST N OF VERACRUZ. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW
TO OVER TAMPA FLORIDA. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OVER THE E GULF N OF 24N E OF 88W. A SECOND RE-INFORCING COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS. STRONG SUBTROPICAL
JET WITH WINDS OF 110 TO 140 CROSSES THE GULF FROM NEAR
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE ADVECTING UPPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO FUELING THE SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE E
GULF. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE GULF LAST
NIGHT...HAS SHIFTED INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE ONLY THE SE
GULF TONIGHT. STRONG NW TO N SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONT WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS
REMAINDER OF THE REGION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR
THE GULF BY MON MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WINDS TO MODERATE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LOST ALL IDENTITY OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF 17N W OF 72W.
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MON. VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE AREA WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CLIP THE N CARIBBEAN AS IT SLIDES INTO THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED OVER THE SW ATLC WITH A 1022
MB HIGH SSW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N67W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W
ATLC EXTENDING FROM E CUBA ALONG THE E US COAST ALONG 76W
COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING SW ALONG 21N55W THEN W TO 21N65W
CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 125 NM N AND W OF THE FRONT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE GULF
CROSSING FLORIDA AND THE SE US INTO THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W.
THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N FROM 40W-65W. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE
HIGH REMAINS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N42W. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 20N39W NE TO
BEYOND 32N31W. A SECOND DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E
ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N16W S TO 18N18W WITH ASSOCIATED
WEAKENING 1009 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED SW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
NEAR 25N19W. THIS SURFACE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE E TO INLAND
OVER W AFRICA AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

$$
WALLACE




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