[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N9W 4N20W 4N40W 3N52W.  CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W-35W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 35W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
28N94W.  A FORMING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO MEXICO
ALONG 25N96W 22N100W.  A FORMING WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE
LOW TO S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W.  COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
MODERATE RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-33N BETWEEN
86W-95W.  SURFACE WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE N 10-15 KT.
WINDS S OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE SE 15KT.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG
85W.  AN OVERCAST BAND OF HIGH CLOUD WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE SE PACIFIC TO CENTRAL MEXICO TO
THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 14N110W 22N100W 27N90W 32N81W.  EXPECT
THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA ATLANTIC
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO S FLORIDA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL THEN HAVE NLY 15-20 KT WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A REMNANT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N74W 16N85W.  BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.  MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN S OF THE FRONT.  ISOLATED LOW LEVEL
SHOWERS DOT THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 75W TO ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... VERY DRY MID/UPPER AIR
CONTINUES OVER THE SEA WITH WLY FLOW.  EXPECT THE REMNANT FRONT
TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A NEW COLD
FRONT WILL BE JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N75W.  A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG
32N45W 24N56W 22N60W 21N70W 20N74W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N45W.  A 1008
MB DEEP LAYERED LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS AT 27N21W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TO 24N19W
19N22W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 13W-18W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A
TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-50W.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N21W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-38N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA






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