[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N9W 4N20W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S49W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 17W
AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEST TEXAS-
NORTHERN MEXICO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TOWARD 20N120W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS FROM THE PACIFIC
OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N105W 22N100W
23N90W 24N80W BEYOND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS NORTH OF THIS
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE
GULF WATERS...EXCEPT FOR A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO CUBA NEAR 21N78W TO 20N80W TO 18N83W
TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THIS FRONT. THE WIND FORECAST
FOR THE SECTION NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT IS FOR NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN CLOUD LINES OF SURFACE CONFLUENT WIND FLOW SOUTH OF
18N EAST OF 70W...FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...AND
WITHIN 60 TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 18N78W FROM JUST SOUTH OF
JAMAICA...TO 15N81W...TO 13N82W TO 11N83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE U.S.A.
EAST COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUPPORTS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 31N57W TO 29N60W TO 24N70W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
20N70W TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS. A DISSIPATING SECONDARY
SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ABOUT 360 NM NORTHWEST OF THE FIRST COLD
BOUNDARY EAST OF 80W. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY A WELL-DEFINED
LINE OF CLOUDS. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE EVIDENT NORTHWEST OF
THE COLD FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS NORTH OF 27N WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT WITH
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT...AND NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 420 NM WEST OF THE
FRONT WITH SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 20N48W... BEYOND 32N45W TO 43N42W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH
APPEARS ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N31W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR
30N26W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO 26N26W 22N28W AND 19N29W. THIS
FEATURE SUPPORTS AN OCCLUDED FRONT FROM A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 35N32W TO A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 31N25W. THE WARM FRONT
GOES TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT GOES TO 28N27W AND
24N37W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 32N27W 31N21W 28N17W 26N19W 26N24W.

$$
MT






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