[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261132
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N25W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 45W TO 2S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG AND WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 22W TO 32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF GENERATING MODERATE TO
STRONG N TO NE WINDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF. AS
A RESULT...EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURRING BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ. AS
THE HIGH MOVES E TODAY TOWARD THE W ATLC WATERS...WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE E AND SE ACROSS THE REGION. COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP A SFC LOW IN THE NW GULF TOMORROW. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE E REACHING N FLORIDA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH A NEW COLD
FRONT TRAILING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT 09Z...A SFC TROUGH
IS ALREADY ANALYZED OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS TROUGH GOES FROM
27N97W TO 20N92W. STRONG SW WINDS ALOFT WILL PROBABLY ENHANCE
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SE ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A 200 NM WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. NLY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
INDICATE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA/CHANNEL...WESTERN CUBA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS IN A VERY STABLE REGIME AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY.
ELSEWHERE EASTERLY TRADES ARE MAINLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...STRONGEST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...WHICH IS TYPICAL
DUE TO THE LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA. SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE DRIVEN W BY THE TRADES IN THE ERN CARIBBEAN.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING TRANSPORTED FROM THE EPAC ITCZ
ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA BY SLY WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC FROM 31N60W TO
25N70W THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CUBA. OVERCAST
CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD NW OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHILE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST E
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SWLY
WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE FOUND WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF
27N. A SECONDARY FRONT IS ALSO OBSERVED ALONG 30N WEST OF 72W.
ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE CENTERED IN THE CARIB COVERS MOST OF
THE AREA W OF 50W. A SUBTROPICAL JET...WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 150
KT...IS RIDING ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SPREADING A
LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EXISTS S OF THERE.
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. AN OCCLUDED EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NEAR
35N32W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N37W WHILE A
WARM FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N27W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 20W-25W. A SFC TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE CANARY OVER THE
COAST OF AFRICA. WEAK SFC RIDGING DOMINATES THE ATLC SOUTH OF
25N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
GR





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