[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260549
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 4N25W 2N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 45W TO 2S50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG AND WITHIN 70 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 22W TO 32W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 03Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS. EARLIER QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 25-30 KT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
BEHIND THE FRONT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP...WITH READINGS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 50S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE FLORIDA KEYS. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS COVERS THE SOUTHERN GULF
WITH CLEARING BEHIND THAT ACROSS THE NRN GULF WATERS N OF 26N.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE OVER THE GULF SFC PATTERN TEMPORARILY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW WITH INCREASING WINDS/SEAS DEVELOPS IN THE NW
GULF DURING SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE E REACHING N FLORIDA BY
LATE SATURDAY WITH A NEW COLD FRONT TRAILING SW TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. A 180-200 NM
WIDE BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
COVERING WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS IN A VERY
STABLE REGIME AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...BUT THE NLY FLOW BEHIND IT WILL BRING
SOME COOLER WEATHER TO THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA.
ELSEWHERE EASTERLY TRADES ARE MAINLY IN THE 15-25 KT
RANGE...STRONGEST N OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST...WHICH IS TYPICAL
DUE TO THE LOWER PRES OVER COLOMBIA. SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ARE DRIVEN W BY THE TRADES IN THE ERN CARIB AND
THEN STEERED TO THE N-NE AHEAD OF THE PREFRONTAL TROF ACROSS
JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ITCZ ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N66W THEN CONTINUES
SW OVER WESTERN BAHAMAS/CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. OVERCAST
CLOUDS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP IS WIDESPREAD NW OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHILE CONVECTIVE WEATHER IS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY N OF 28N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE JUST E
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SWLY WINDS UP TO GALE FORCE ARE FOUND
WITHIN 240 NM E OF FRONT N OF 27N. ALOFT...THE STRONG RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE CARIB COVERS MOST OF THE AREA W OF 50W. A
SUBTROPICAL JET...WITH CORE WINDS NEAR 150 KT...IS RIDING ALONG
THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SPREADING A LARGE SWATH OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 27N. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE EXISTS S OF THERE.
AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...BUT IS NOT GENERATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. A WEAK SFC TROUGH GOES FROM 27N40W TO
29N34W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THIS POINT. A WEAK 1013 MB
LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS WITH ANOTHER SFC TROUGH
EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 23N20W. IN BETWEEN...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED N OF 25N. WEAK SFC RIDGING
DOMINATES THE ATLC SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA.

$$
GR




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