[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
AXIS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120NM N
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING
FROM A 1025 MB CENTER MOVING E THROUGH THE SE U.S. THE EXCEPTION
IS THE LINGERING SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
19N92W 24N97W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO LINGER IN THE WRN GULF S OF 28N AND W OF 90W. LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ALSO SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW. MUCH CLEARER SKIES...WITH VERY DRY MID TO UPPER
AIR IN PLACE...IS NOTICED NE OF A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO
NEW ORLEANS. OVERALL UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL...WITH A PLUME OF UPPER
MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC STRETCHING E THROUGH MEXICO AND INTO
THE GULF WATERS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN MEXICO AND 87W. MODELS
STILL SUGGEST A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW GULF DURING
SAT...AND INTO THE NE GULF BY SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL SWING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL...SEE
THE GULF OFFSHORE WATER FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT4 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS IS
BECOMING STATIONARY. BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 180NM NW OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE NE
15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXCEPT A BIT STRONGER TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA PER USUAL. ALSO E OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED PATCHES OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE
ADVECTED W THEN SW WITH THE LIGHT TRADES. VERY DRY MID TO UPPER
AIR CONTINUES TO HOVER AROUND RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY MID TO UPPER MOISTURE NOTED IN THIS EVENINGS
WV IMAGERY IS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND ALSO JUST OFF COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN
INTO SAT...BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE FAR NW CARIB BY
LATE SUNDAY. MODERATE TRADES PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN
WATERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE SW N ATLC BEHIND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N52W AND CONTINUES
SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR BOTH PREFRONTAL AND POSTFRONTAL WINDS IN THE NRN PORTION OF
THE AREA...SEE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAHSFAT2 FOR
MORE DETAILS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS IS WITHIN 180NM NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS NOTED ELSEWHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A POWERFUL LOW SPINNING SE OF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. ASSOCIATED STRONG...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL SPREAD
SE THROUGH EXPOSED BEACHES IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK 1016MB SFC HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
WATERS NEAR 24N42W. UPPER PATTERN OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW FROM FLORIDA TO NEAR 65W.  RIDGING IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 65W AND 35W. E ATLC DOMINATED BY
THE DEEP LAYER LOW ABOUT 400 NM WNW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.
ASSOCIATED 1007 MB SFC LOW NEAR 30N26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING SE TO NEAR 25N21W BY TOMORROW EVENING...AND THEN WEAKEN
STEADILY THROUGH SUN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 12W-25W...WHICH
INCLUDES THE CANARY ISLANDS.

$$
WILLIS




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