[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
7N12W 4N20W 3N30W 3N40W 3N45W...TO THE EQUATOR AT 49W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 2N1W 3N6W 4N10W 4N14W 4N21W 5N36W 5N46W. OTHER POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
THE NORTHERN END OF A SHARPER MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS
FROM NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REACHES
A BIT INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO NORTH OF 21N WEST OF 100W...ACROSS
TEXAS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 30N70W AND 30N60W...TO 32N53W
BEFORE CURVING CYCLONICALLY NEAR THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH.
A STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER TO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL WATERS...TO
THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 26N82W...TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N66W JUST WEST OF BERMUDA TO 28N70W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS
EAST OF PUERTO RICO TO 18N62W...IN THE CENTRAL WATERS FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND SOUTH OF 19N WEST OF 80W.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 44W/45W...PASSING
THROUGH 32N TO 17N43W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N43W
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N47W TO 18N50W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N19W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N EAST OF 50W.

$$
MT



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