[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N30W 3N43W 1S50W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 31W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
 A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE W GULF OF
MEXICO THEN BENDS SHARPLY S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 26N80W
28N88W 25N96W 18N94W.  15-20 KT NLY WINDS ARE N OF FRONT.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N AND W OF THE
FRONT.  IN CONTRAST... 10-15 KT ELY WINDS ARE S AND E OF THE
FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70'S...20-30 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THE COLD AIR MASS.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH UPPER WINDS PRIMARILY FROM THE
W.  A BAND OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUD IS OVER N
MEXICO AND THE N GULF N OF 29N.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY N
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE SEA ESPECIALLY OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W
OF 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  30KT WINDS ARE ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA.  ALOFT...EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 82W.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO S FLORIDA
NEAR 26N80W.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT.  A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
24N47W MOVING NE.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N44W
24N47W 21N50W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
22N-30N BETWEEN 40W-45W.  E OF 35W A DENSE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST
IS EVIDENT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR
25N45W.  ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 29N20W.
WLY FLOW COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N
BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AT 60W TO AFRICA.


$$
FORMOSA





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