[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN THROUGH
4N20W 3N33W CROSSING THE AT 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 240 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A STALLED STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM S FLA TO S MEXICO ALONG 26N82W 26N86W 28N90W TO
AN ILL-DEFINED 1022 MB LOW NEAR 26N95W THEN SWD TO 19N94W. THE
CLEAREST TEMP GRAD IS IN THE WRN GULF WHERE TEMPS AT 15Z RANGED
FROM THE 40'S AND 50'S F N AND W OF THE FRONT TO THE 70'S F S
AND E. NOT SURPRISINGLY...SFC WINDS ALSO HAVE A MORE IMPRESSIVE
DIR AND MAGNITUDE CHANGE IN THIS AREA. N OF THE FRONT...NELY
WINDS ARE NEAR 20 KT WHILE LIGHTER ELY ARE S OF IT. THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOWING UP ON DOPPLER RADAR IN S FLA
AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS ON IR PICTURES. MORE
ORGANIZED MOISTURE IS FURTHER N ALONG AND N OF THE GULF COAST
DUE TO A SUBTROPICAL JET ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC E/NE AROUND THE NRN PERIPHERY OF A FLAT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IN THE GULF. PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS DOMINATES THE AREA S OF 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TITLED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. DEEP
CONVECTION IS ABSENT DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE/SINKING.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT THE SFC WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF COLOMBIA WHERE QSCAT DEPICTS NELY FLOW
MAINLY IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE. THE TRADES CONTINUE TO ADVECT
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD ACROSS
THE BASIN. THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO BANK LOW
CLOUDS/MOISTURE UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL AMERICAN TERRAIN WHERE
SOME STATIONS ARE REPORTING LIGHT RAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH TOMORROW.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A LARGE SCALE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIB
COVERS THE WRN ATLC...W OF ABOUT 65W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED INTO THE REGION...MAINLY N OF 28N FROM THE SUBTROPICAL
JET IN THE PACIFIC. S OF 28N...MODERATE DRY AIR IS IN PLACE. AT
THE SFC...A TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N72W AND
STRETCHES TO S FLORIDA. A SURGE IN NWLY WINDS IS ADVECTING IN
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 28N. THE FRONT WILL RACE
QUICKLY E THROUGH THE WRN ATLC ON SAT...THOUGH MUCH OF THE
ENERGY WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA. A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX DEEP LAYER
TROUGH EXISTS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH....IS
A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N48W WITH A SFC TROF EXTENDING
NEWD TO 30N44W AND SWWD FROM THE LOW TO 21N52W. A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES TO THE N/NE OF THE CENTER N
OF 23N BETWEEN 41W-47W. GFS SHOWS THIS LOW TRACKING NE AND
DEEPENING TOMORROW EVENTUALLY BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER
MORE POWERFUL LOW TO ITS NW ON SUN. IN THE E ATLC...A PRONOUNCED
UPPER LOW IS NEAR 27N23W. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS IS OVER AND N OF OF THE CANARY ISLANDS BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 20W. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE E ATLC DOMINATED BY MODERATE E
TO NE WINDS SW OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ANCHORED IN PORTUGAL. A
TROPICAL WSW UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO
ADVECT SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO
THE AFRICAN COAST WITHIN 500 NM SE OF A LINE ALONG 7N58W 15N34W
21N17W. THIS JET IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 25W-37W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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