[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 201154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N12W 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 3N45W...TO 1S50W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 3N BETWEEN 4W AND 10W...
AND FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 26W AND 29W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA. THE
NORTHERN END OF A SHARPER MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WHICH RUNS FROM
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL REACHES A BIT
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO NORTH OF 21N WEST OF 100W...ACROSS
TEXAS...EASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES...INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 30N70W AND 30N60W...TO 32N50W BEFORE
CURVING CYCLONICALLY NEAR THE BASE OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CURVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL
WATERS...TO THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR
26N82W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W. POSSIBLE SHOWERS
IN BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF 26N/27N...
ELSEWHERE WEST OF 90W...AND EAST OF 88W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N63W TO 27N70W TO 26N80W
IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS
EAST OF PUERTO RICO EAST OF 73W...SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF 76W...
AND FROM 16N TO 19N WEST OF 83W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE IS
IN THE WESTERN WATERS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS ELSEWHERE. MIDDLE LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN. THE SURFACE WIND FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS FROM 9 TO 12 FT.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 50W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/44W...PASSING
THROUGH FROM 17N BEYOND 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 29N41W
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 27N44W TO 18N50W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 36W AND 44W.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N18W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS
SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N EAST OF 50W.

$$
MT




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