[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 5N14W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W...TO
2S47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 2N TO 3N BETWEEN 31W
AND BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 39W AND
42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN
46W AND 57W INCLUDING OVER BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROUGH-
TO-GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE PATTERN FROM 24 HOURS AGO IS BASICALLY
THE SAME. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW STILL COVERS THE GULF
WATERS. THE RIDGE IS RIGHT ON TOP OF FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVES FROM MEXICO NORTH OF 17N INTO TEXAS...AND ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 28N WEST OF 60W. A STATIONARY FRONT
IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AT THE MOMENT. THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOR THIS FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...AND TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE GULF
OF MEXICO...JUST BARELY...BY 72 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 70W.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COMES FROM A RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 24N55W TO 15N62W
TO 13N70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE COVERS PRACTICALLY EVERYTHING...EXCEPT
FOR THE AREA OF MULTILAYERED MOISTURE FROM 13N TO 17N EAST OF
61W. A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 9N75W IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. THE CURRENT CONDITIONS SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 70W AND
79W ARE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 10 TO
15 FT. ELSEWHERE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT SEAS
8 TO 11 FT. THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W
AND 78W INDICATES NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KT SEAS
10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N EAST OF 84W NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KT AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPILLS OVER FROM
FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN FLORIDA AND
60W. THIS FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVES INTO THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N54W TO
17N60W...AND EVENTUALLY TO 13N70W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 400 TO
500 NM EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W
AND 60W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
32N43W 27N47W 23N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...WEAKENING WITH
TIME...FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 51W AND 52W. A SECOND TROUGH IS
ALONG 21N47W 18N46W 15N44W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 26N
BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N26W
28N26W 25N24W.

$$
MT


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