[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150510
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N24W 1N41W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 47W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 35W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF EXTENDING N
OVER THE E US ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST N OF W CUBA NEAR
24N84W. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION CONTINUES TO
STREAM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE DESERT
SW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH A 20 TO 30 DEG TEMPERATURE
AND DEW POINT DIFFERENCE ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT SUGGESTING
A SHALLOW AIR MASS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W
ATLC ACROSS THE SE US AND THE GULF OF MEXICO E OF 93W WITH
LIGHT/MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. WEAK RETURN
FLOW REMAINS EVIDENT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 82W AS WELL AS ALONG THE
TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
BRINGING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS TO GALE FORCE BY MON NIGHT/TUE
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED JUST N OF W CUBA COVERING THE GULF OF
MEXICO...W ATLC...AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CUT-OFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N
E OF 67W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN. STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W
ATLC W OF 70W. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVER THE
AREA...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N W
OF 80W. CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 23N62W
DIPPING S OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N44W TO 29N51W.
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N55W TO 31N43W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 40W-53W.
STRONG E/W SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE ATLC WITH A
1031 MB HIGH ANCHORED JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N62W AND A 1030
MB HIGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N38W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED DEEP IN THE E
TROPICAL ATLC. WEAK REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE E ATLC
ALONG 28W EXTENDING FROM 23N-33N. THE AFRICAN DUST PLUM IS
BEGINNING TO DISPERSE COVERING THE AREA S OF 21N E OF 42W.

$$
WALLACE




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