[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 4N25W 2N35W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 46W. THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION NOTED IS THE CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60NM OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N THROUGH
THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE UPPER PATTERN
OVER THE GULF...AND IS ADVECTING A SIGNIFICANT BAND OF MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC THROUGH MEX...TEXAS...AND CLIPPING THE NW GULF
WATERS. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ABSENT OVER THE GULF WATERS
TODAY WITH JUST ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS SEEN ROTATING
AROUND LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NE. AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG NOTED NEAR THE TX AND NRN MEXICO COAST
THOUGH...WITH WARM/MOIST ONSHORE FLOW INTERACTING WITH
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS OF 1500 UTC...STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST AND THEN WWARD INTO NE
MEXICO. 1032 MB SFC HIGH JUST N OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO EXTEND
INTO THE GULF TODAY...PRODUCING 10-20 KT SE WINDS OVER MUCH OF
THE BASIN. THESE WINDS ARE THE CULPRIT FOR THE MODERATE E TO SE
WIND WAVES AND SWELL PROPAGATING W/NW THROUGH THE GULF...AND ARE
GENERALLY LARGEST IN THE WRN GULF WHERE THE EFFECTIVE FETCH IS
LARGEST. WRN GULF BUOY 42002 HAS THE MAXIMA WITH 7 FT SEAS AT 9
SEC. THIS IS ALSO PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG SURF ALONG THE
SRN TX/MEXICO COAST AS VERIFIED BY SOUTH PADRE WEB CAM PICTURES.
THE ESE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY THROUGH EARLY WEEK AS THE SFC
HIGH MOVES WELL NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE
WEAKENING. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW
GULF ON MON INTO TUE BRINGING RAPIDLY INCREASE NW TO N WINDS AND
SEAS. SEE MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2 FOR DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ASIDE FOR PERSISTENT BRISK TRADES...IT IS A QUIET WEATHER DAY IN
THE CARIBBEAN. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER THE BASIN. THE DRY AIR IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN CARIB AND AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE ERN PORTION. THE EXTENSIVE LOW
TO MID MOISTURE THAT WAS HOVERING OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...ABC
ISLANDS...AND WINDWARD ISLANDS THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS MOVED E OF
THE AREA WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...GFS
MOISTURE FIELDS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL REDEVELOP EARLY TO MID
WEEK LIKELY DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW. ATLC HIGH PRES WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
1032 MB SFC HIGH JUST N OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FRESH
ELY WINDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED 6
TO 12 FT SHORT TO MEDIUM PERIOD ELY SWELL HAS ALSO DEVELOPED.
THIS SUBSIDES SLOWLY THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE HIGH SLIDES E AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF NEXT COLD FRONT. THE TRADE FLOW
ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS ADVECTING SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WWD. THESE LOW CLOUDS DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY E OF 40W THOUGH...WITH A DENSE AREA OF DUST
EVIDENT AS DEPICTED BY VIS IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS SAHARAN AIR
LAYER ANALYSIS. PAIR OF WEAK SFC TROUGHS ARE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
AS SEEN ON THE 1200 UTC MAP...FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 40W-57W.
THESE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT HAS BECOME DIFFUSE...IN ADDITION TO THE PRONOUNCED
UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 35W-65W. ASSOCIATED MOISTURE RICH REGION
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 43W-60W. E ATLC
DOMINATED BY UPPER RIDGING...WHICH CONTINUES TO ADVECT HIGH
CLOUDS EWD BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND AFRICA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE E TO NE SFC WINDS ALSO OVER THE E ATLC S OF 1031 MB
AZORES HIGH NEAR 39N31W. THE SFC TROUGH ALONG 33N25W
25N22W...ABOUT 400 NW W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN.

$$
WILLIS




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