[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 7N10W 4N18W 1N32W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR
51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N
BETWEEN 25W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES ALONG 100W INTO THE GULF W OF 87W. THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE FAR E US AND THE NE GULF INTO THE W
ATLC...RESULTING IN MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF INTO
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH OVER E VIRGINIA. RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BANK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIED BY POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ENTER THE GULF IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND TO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED WELL INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N55W TO NEAR 24N65W
PULLING UP STATIONARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND
DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT.
WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 23N62W. OVERCAST
COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO
THE US E COAST. VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE
REGION COVERING THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W-55W. AN UPPER LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 29N22W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO
21N26W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 19W-24W. THE
TROPICS REMAINS DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N16W
ALONG 21N17W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 20N14W OFF THE COAST OF
MOROCCO. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE MUCH
OF ATLC BETWEEN 20W-50W ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH OVER THE
AZORES.

$$
WALLACE



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