[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N20W 2N30W
1N40W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 22W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF AND THE SE U.S.. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA. W TO
NW UPPER WINDS ARE ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF. SOME UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS INVADING THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF. BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA AND THE SE U.S INTO THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH OVER DELMARVA PENINSULA. WINDS
AROUND THE HIGH CONTINUE TO BANK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DOT THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF. THIS SFC HIGH IS ALSO GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. SLY RETURN
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF FROM W TO E AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW
GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY STRONG GUSTY N WINDS.
15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE ALREADY BLOWING OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF
THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED WELL INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
VERY DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE BASIN. THE BASE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH LIES OVER W CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SWWD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND E CUBA...WHERE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DRIVEN BY THE TRADE WINDS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE ENHANCING AN AREA OF MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TRINIDAD REPORTED 1.13 INCHES OF RAIN
THIS MORNING. EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ALSO ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THE TRADE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SEA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS STRONG
HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA AND MOVES EWD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W
CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR
32N53W THEN CONTINUES SWWD TO NEAR 24N65W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND E CUBA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS ANALYZED FROM 29N55W TO 22N60W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO THE US E COAST. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE LOCATED N OF THE REGION COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM
30W-55W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 28N22W WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW AND W TO 18N36W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE FOUND JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH DOMINATING THE TROPICS.
SAT PICTURES SHOW A BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS RUNNING
BETWEEN 9N-12N INTO W AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS VERY
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 31N18W TO 15N16W. THIS TROUGH
IS PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MENTIONED
ABOVE. A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED E OF THE AZORES
DOMINATES THE E-CENTRAL ATLC...E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS
FEATURE IS GENERATING MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS BETWEEN THE
MADEIRA AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ARE OVER THE OCEAN E OF 60W.

$$
GR






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