[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 110515
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N8W 5N21W 2N31W 1N38W ACROSS THE EQUATOR
NEAR 42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 20W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES ALONG 102W INTO THE GULF W OF 92W. THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE FAR E US AND THE N GULF INTO THE W ATLC
N OF 25N...RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS ACROSS THE
GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE GULF ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER WEST VIRGINIA. RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED BY
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
MAINLY CLEAR WITH SOME SCATTERED COLD AIR CLOUDS. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO ENTER THE GULF IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN
THE WEEKEND TO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED WELL INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA GIVING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY UPPER
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W
PULLING UP STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA.
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 31N57W TO 26N60W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM
E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO THE US E COAST. VERY BROAD
UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION COVERING THE
CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W-55W. NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E
ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N20W S TO NEAR 18N25W
WITH A WEAK 1021 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 19W-22W. THE TROPICS REMAINS DOMINATED
BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG
THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM SENEGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS OFF THE
COAST OF MOROCCO. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE MUCH OF ATLC BETWEEN 20W-55W ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH OVER
THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE




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