[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N3W 5N22W 2N33W 1N52W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 30W-36W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM
21W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 75 NM OF 3N FROM 36W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US...THE N GULF...INTO THE
W ATLC N OF 25N...RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CLEARED THE GULF ON TUE IS NOW IN THE
W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN WITH A SECOND PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
SECOND COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A STRONG LOW OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE NE
GULF TO NEAR 29N87W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED
BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS GENERATING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS...POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS THE US WITH A SERIES OF 1033 MB HIGHS
INLAND OVER TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
GULF AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY
MOVES E ACROSS THE SE US WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT MOVING
INTO THE GULF UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND EXTENDS INTO THE
S GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N81W. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF
72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 17N88W.
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
32N68W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W DISSIPATING IN THE W
CARIBBEAN. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW
OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 32N78W CROSSING NE
FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE LEADING COLD FRONT WHILE THE SECOND COLD FRONT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN MUCH DRIER AIR AND NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
NEAR 24N60W COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-70W DIPPING S INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N64W TO THE MONA PASSAGE. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION IS BEGINNING TO
SHEAR THE UPPER TROUGH THAT LINGERS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERING
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 22N FROM 28W-55W. NARROW UPPER
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N20W S TO NEAR
23N25W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION WITHIN THE REGION. THE TROPICS
IS DOMINATED BY STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF 60W
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 36N38W.

$$
WALLACE




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