[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 3N3W 4N22W 1N32W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM
40W-52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF THE AXIS FROM 19W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E US...THE N GULF...INTO THE
W ATLC N OF 24N...RESULTING IN MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT CLEARED THE GULF YESTERDAY IS NOW IN
THE W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF ANCHORED BY AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL FEATURES IS GENERATING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS...POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIED BY
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS THE US WITH A MB HIGH ALONG THE NE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR24N98W AND A LARGER 1033 MB HIGH INLAND OVER ARKANSAS.
MODERATE/STRONG NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAK
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF AND WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY
LATER TODAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES E ACROSS THE SE
US WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM NOT MOVING INTO THE GULF UNTIL
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 72W AND EXTENDS INTO THE
S GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 16N81W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN
N OF 16N E OF 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY UPPER AIR
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE W CARIBBEAN.
MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W
DISSIPATING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA  AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1002 MB LOW MOVING NE WELL
N OF THE REGION THROUGH 32N72W TO 29N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LEADING COLD FRONT WHILE THE SECOND COLD
FRONT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN MUCH DRIER AIR AND NOT PRODUCING
ANY SHOWERS. THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING AND EXTENDS FROM A ILL-DEFINED UPPER LOW NEAR
24N58W COVERING THE AREA FROM 55W-65W DIPPING S INTO THE NE
CARIBBEAN. VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION
CONTINUES TO ERODE THE UPPER TROUGH THAT LINGERS IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC AND COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 18N FROM 28W-55W.
NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH
32N18W S TO NEAR 20N25W WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N19W TO 29N23W. THE TROPICS REMAINS DOMINATED BY
STRONG WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH
NEAR 36N36W.

$$
WALLACE





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