[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Tue Jan 9 17:40:39 CST 2007


AXNT20 KNHC 092339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N20W 2N30W 3N45W
2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS NOW EXISTS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC.
A WEAK REINFORCING FRONT IS ALONG THE N GULF COAST FROM N
FLORIDA TO S LOUISIANA. STRONG HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA
ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH IN S TEXAS. NELY WINDS FROM 15 TO 25
KT IS COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...STRONGEST IN THE MIDDLE
AND E GULF. THIS STRONG FLOW IS POOLING CONSIDERABLE DENSE LOW
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A FAIR AMOUNT
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SHOWERS...GENERATED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN A TROUGH
TO THE NE OF THE AREA AND A RIDGE IN THE CARIB...IS S OF 26N.
THIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA FROM W TO E. OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STRONG RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL AS
IT SLIDES E. THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY IN THE
CENTRAL AND W GULF AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CARIB. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EXTREME ERN TROPICAL
EPAC NEWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED TROUGHING LIES E OF THERE EXTENDING FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD PANAMA. THIS PATTERN IS ENHANCING
DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WITH ABUNDANT STABLE AIR
DOMINATING THE AREA. THE TAIL END OF A W ATLC COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...WRN CUBA AND THE ERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
SRN BRANCH OF THE FRONT WAS ANALYZED STATIONARY AT 18Z...BUT IT
MAY STILL BE INCHING SLOWLY TO THE SE. BASED ON IR IMAGERY AND
SFC OBS...ONLY LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND TO THE W OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS W
CUBA...THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NRN COUNTRIES IN CENTRAL AMERICA.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY EMBEDDED IN PATCHES
OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING W/SW ACROSS THE SEA.
TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE...EXCEPT FOR WINDS TO 25 KT N OF
COLOMBIA AND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVERALL...THE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN SIMILAR THRU THE TONIGHT/TOMORROW AND THEN INCREASE
TOMORROW NIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE EXTREME WRN ATLC WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM W OF BERMUDA ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS AND WRN CUBA ALONG 32N69W 25N77W 23N81W CONTINUING INTO
THE CARIB. OVERCAST SKIES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NLY WINDS ARE
MODERATE TO STRONG ADVECTING IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS. IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAKENING SFC TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NRN
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 26N58W. THIS WEAK SFC FEATURE IS RELATED TO
THE REMNANTS OF A ONCE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 52W-57W. FURTHER N...A STRONG
VERTICALLY STACKED RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CENTER NEAR 35N44W. THE SFC HIGH IS A LITTLE TO THE
E...ANALYZED AT 1030 MB NEAR 36N41W. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA NOT OUTLINED N OF 22N W OF 30W. IN THE ERN
AND TROPICAL ATLC...A SHARP DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE NE
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 32N20W TO 23N32W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE NE
ATLC...THE STRONG STACKED RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND
EXTENSIVE ZONAL FLOW IN THE TROPICS...IS GENERATING BROKEN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC FROM
12N-22N. IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS POSSIBLE SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 25W-38W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO
OCCURRING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.

$$
CANGIALOSI




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net




More information about the Tropical mailing list