[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081111
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N FROM ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W THEN
ALONG 4N42W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 1N28W TO
5N40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE W
GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE GULF JUST E OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA
CONTINUING S ALONG 24N92W INTO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR
30N86W TO MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANK...SKIES ARE CLEARING THE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20'S
AND 30'S ACROSS TEXAS...THUS DRYING OUT. THE E GULF INCLUDING
FLORIDA IS CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N82W. SOME
WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE DETECTED
USHERED IN ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD CLEARING THE GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REGION W OF 80W. MORE COMPLEX
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W W JUST S OF JAMAICA TO 16N80W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR DOMINATE THE REGION WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS THAT ALSO ARE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE STRONG TRADE WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N OF
THE AREA SHIFTS E AND THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES INTO THE
W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
OVER W CUBA COUPLED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE
LEAVING THE AREA W OF 60W MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N54W SW INTO
THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. A
SURFACE REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
30N49W TO THE TROPICS NEAR 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES
FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 46W-54W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC N
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA N OF 27N E OF 26W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
HIGH NEAR 6N35W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N FROM AFRICA TO THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. A 1027 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA
NEAR 32N56W AND A 1031 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
35N22W.

$$
WALLACE



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