[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...3N10W 2N25W 3N40W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 29W-35W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
MAINLY NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 36W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NW
PORTION OF THE GULF. SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ARE
TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF MAINLY NORTH OF 25N. AS OF
1500 UTC...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR TAMPA
BAY...THEN CONTINUES SWWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTH
MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. A ROPE CLOUD OR NARROW LINE OF WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA BAY
DELINEATES THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND...SKIES ARE
CLEARING WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS. THE SE
GULF...INCLUDING SOUTH FLORIDA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER W
CUBA NEAR 23N82W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
CLEARING THE GULF ON TUE AND CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT...
PARTICULARLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. VERACRUZ IS ALREADY
REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35-40 KT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN
WITH THE AXIS ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR DOMINATE
THE REGION WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING WWD UNDER
AN ELY WIND FLOW. ONE OF THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE IS CROSSING
JAMAICA. SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN BLOWING ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE PREVIOUS DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUE
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND THE COLD
FRONT IN THE GULF MOVES INTO THE W ATLC/NW CARIBBEAN. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA LATE TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
OVER W CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ARE LEAVING THE AREA
W OF 60W MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 24N56W SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N55W TO THE TROPICS
NEAR 15N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOSTLY
GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN
46W-55W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC BETWEEN THE MADEIRA
AND THE CANARY ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
TROPICS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH NEAR 4N30W AND COVERS THE AREA
S OF 25N FROM AFRICA TO THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. JET STREAM WITH
WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS
UPPER RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE
ATLC WITH A WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. A
1029 MB HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N45W AND A 1031 MB HIGH IS
AROUND MID WAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
GR/PW






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