[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N FROM ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 22W THEN
ALONG 3N38W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 2N28W TO 4N40W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES INTO THE W
GULF OF MEXICO W OF 86W WITH THE ASSOCIATED SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE GULF NEAR THE
FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER CONTINUING S ALONG 25N92W INTO THE W BAY
OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOW INLAND OVER THE SE US WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM THE
N GULF COAST NEAR 20N88W TO MEXICO NEAR 21N97W. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD BANK...SKIES ARE
CLEARING THE DROPPING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 20'S AND 30'S ACROSS TEXAS...THUS DRYING OUT. THE
E GULF INCLUDING THE FLORIDA  IS EXPERIENCING CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WEATHER WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE
BAHAMAS. SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE DETECTED
USHERED IN ON THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AS EXPECTED...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD CLEARING THE GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REGION W OF 80W. MORE COMPLEX
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W W TO A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST S OF JAMAICA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND VERY DRY AIR DOMINATE THE REGION WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS THAT ALSO ARE ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX ON TUE AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE N OF THE AREA SHIFTS E AND THE COLD FRONT IN THE
GULF MOVES INTO THE W ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W COUPLED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR IS LEAVING THE AREA W OF 60W MOSTLY CLOUD FREE. AN UPPER
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 27N52W
S TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 21N55W THEN SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. A SURFACE REFLECTION IN
THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N48W INTO THE
TROPICS NEAR 18N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOSTLY GENERATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES FROM 21N-29N
BETWEEN 45W-56W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC JUST N OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N E OF 26W.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS ANCHORED BY AN UPPER
HIGH NEAR 7N37W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 25N FROM AFRICA TO THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT
EXTENDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER RIDGE. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A
WEAKNESS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH DESCRIBED ABOVE. A 1029 MB
HIGH IS E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N58W AND A 1033 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE
CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 35N22W.

$$
WALLACE


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