[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N10W 2N20W 3N30W 3N37W...CURVING
TO THE EQUATOR AT 46W...AND 2S50W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
POSSIBLE SHOWERS SOUTH OF 2N BETWEEN 8W AND 20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND 46W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
IN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF 10N ELSEWHERE BETWEEN
46W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW IN U.S.A. MOUNTAIN WEST STATES.
THE MOISTURE IS WITHIN 300 NM WEST OF 30N90W 22N100W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GOES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. A WARM FRONT CUTS ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND REACHES A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN
THE COASTAL WATERS JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A COLD FRONT
CURVES TO 28N95W 25N96W 22N98W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS
AND MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GULF WATERS
AND REACH FLORIDA BY 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 20N55W TO 16N68W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N78W IN THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE
TROUGH...MOSTLY WEST OF 80W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 21N83W...ABOUT 90 NM SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 28N51W TO A SECOND ONE NEAR 20N55W.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N47W 23N54W 18N57W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
20N TO 26N BETWEEN 48W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
26N TO 30N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. THE WIND FLOW NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 70W IS LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC...RELATED TO THE 21N83W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
31N21W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N TO 34N BETWEEN
16W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N26W 24N25W 26N25W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 18W AND
24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM
26N TO 36N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W...AND FROM 30N TO 35N
BETWEEN 20W AND 23W.

$$
MT


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