[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N10W 2N20W 3N30W 3N37W...CURVING
TO THE EQUATOR AT 46W...AND 1S48W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN
20W AND 43W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS SOUTH OF 10N ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 20W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS IN SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH NOW IN U.S.A. MOUNTAIN WEST STATES. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE GULF WATERS. THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED FROM 92W TO 86W NOW.
A WARM FRONT COVERS THE NEAR SHORE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF...CONNECTING TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST
SOUTH OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM THE 1013 MB LOW CENTER TO HUG THE ENTIRE TEXAS COAST AND
THE MEXICO COAST TO 23N. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
GULF WATERS AND REACH FLORIDA BY 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 21N56W TO 16N65W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N77W IN THE WEST CENTRAL SECTION OF THE AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF THE
TROUGH...MOSTLY WEST OF 80W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 21N82W NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM ONE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 29N51W TO A SECOND ONE NEAR 21N56W.
THE TROUGH CONTINUES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N49W 24N54W 18N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
0N TO 25N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
26N TO 28N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W. THE WIND FLOW NORTH OF 20N
WEST OF 70W IS LARGELY ANTICYCLONIC...RELATED TO THE 21N82W
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA. AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 30N23W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N TO 35N
BETWEEN 16W AND 28W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N26W 24N25W
26N25W. 32W/33W SOUTH OF 26N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
30N TO 32N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 11W AND 23W...AND
NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 10W AND 30W.

$$
MT

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