[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062324
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N15W 6N30W
...CURVING TO 3N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 26W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR AND UNSEASONABLE HUMID CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE GULF UNDER
10 TO 20 KT S-SELY SFC FLOW AND ABUNDANT DRY MID AND UPPER LEVEL
AIR. THIS AIRMASS LIES AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM
CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND BRO INTO
NRN MEXICO. THE FRONT SHOULD NOT BE STATIONARY MUCH LONGER AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER CO/NM...APPROACHES. THERE
ISN'T MUCH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AT THE MOMENT AS DOPPLER RADAR
ONLY DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE NE GULF TRIGGERED BY
THE TAIL END OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STRETCHES FROM JAX
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE FL PANHANDLE TO 28N90W. AS
MENTIONED...THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME PROGRESSIVE LATER
TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW AND MAY CLEAR THE ENTIRE GULF BY TUE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH STRONG NLY
WINDS ADVECTING A MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS BEHIND IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE W CARIB AND THE SE GULF
WITH THE BASE OF A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH COVERING THE
CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS. THIS CONFLUENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
GENERATING WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT PROVIDING A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE REGION. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...BENEATH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...IS BEING STIRRED UP AND
DRIVEN W BY STRONG TRADES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN THE SW
CARIB WHERE OBS AND QSCAT SUGGEST 25-30 KT. THESE WINDS WILL
STAY ON THE STRONG SIDE THRU SUN AND GRADUALLY SLACKEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE AREA BREAKS DOWN. THE DRY
STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
STRONG RATHER FLAT SFC RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC
WITH THREE SFC HIGH CENTERS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA. THIS RIDGING
IS BEING INTERRUPTED BY A WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ALONG 19N56W
26N50W 30N43W. THIS SFC FEATURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 22N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 50W-56W. A SMALL
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED TO THE NNE OF THE MAIN ONE NEAR 31N49W.
THIS SMALL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED S AND AMPLIFY THE
SRN UPPER LOW/TROUGH FURTHER. GFS SHOWS THIS FEATURE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY TOMORROW AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NW AND
WEAKENING EARLY WEEK. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS COVER THE ATLC W OF
56W...SUPPORTED BY NLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE TROPICAL E ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE...THICKEST FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 25W-40W. A WEAK UPPER
LOW IS LOCATED IN THE NE PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN ITS VICINITY N
OF 27N BETWEEN 21W-26W.

$$
CANGIALOSI




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