[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...4N10W 4N20W 5N34W...CURVING TO
3N43W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W...AND 2S49W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED.
THE COLD FRONT WITH THAT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO HAS DISAPPEARED.
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR
26N100W NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS.
THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 TO 72 HOURS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE NOW COVERS THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
THE RIDGE IS ALONG 92W NORTH OF 23N...SURROUNDED BY MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TOWARD
EAST CENTRAL NICARAGUA...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO
24N87W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DRY AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
23N56W...TO 12N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO
NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN 63W AND 74W...MOVING SOUTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF CYCLONIC
CENTER/TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ALL THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 60W
IS NORTHWESTERLY...HEADING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE 23N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 31N44W 27N50W 24N53W 18N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 49W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 46W AND 57W...AND FROM 29N TO 32N
BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N28W. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 25W AND 30W. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 26N. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EAST OF THIS
CYCLONIC CENTER...NOW NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 10W AND 26W.

$$
MT


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