[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1130 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 15W THEN
ALONG 5N25W 3N40W AND CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 47W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SW PORTION OF ATLC RIDGE HAS TAKEN OVER THE GULF SFC PATTERN.
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING E THROUGH THE NRN GULF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DISSIPATED...WITH SLY FLOW 10-15 KT ALONG
WITH A WEAK WARM ADVECTION PATTERN NOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF
INCLUDING THE AREA BEHIND THE OLD COLD FRONT. THE AREA OF
SHOWERS OFFSHORE TAMPA HAVE CONTINUED TO STEADILY
DIMINISH...WITH THE SUPPORTING DYNAMICS NOW WELL NE OF THE AREA.
DRY MID TO UPPER AIR IS SEEN IN THIS MORNINGS WV IMAGERY OVER
THE MAJORITY OF THE GOMEX...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGING
NOW DOMINATING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW PORTION
TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM PANAMA CONTINUES TO COVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. MID TO UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN LEAVING ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE REGION. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 15-25 KT
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEING STRONGEST NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER RIDGING WITH DRY AIR IS PUSHING INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
WATERS OFFSHORE FLORIDA THIS MORNING IN WAKE OF THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH THAT IS NOW FLATTENING AND LIFTING NE OF THE AREA. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS NE OF THE BAHAMAS
BETWEEN 65W-78W. A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W-CENTRAL
ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 40W-65W. ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH IS ALONG
31N44W 19N55W WHICH HAS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
19N-30N BETWEEN 47W-57W. REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC SFC
PATTERN DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 1033 MB HIGH N
OF THE AREA NEAR 36N47W. LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE
E AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ASIDE FROM A SMALL NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH ALONG 32N30W 23N20W.SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE AREA NE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SFC
RIDGING ALSO OVER THE ERN ATLC WATERS FROM A 1033 MB CENTER JUST
SE OF THE AZORES.

$$
WILLIS




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