[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 14W THEN
ALONG 5N25W 3N40W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
18W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SW PORTION OF ATLC RIDGE IS NOW TAKING OVER THE GULF SFC
PATTERN. THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN MOVING E THROUGH THE NRN
GULF OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW DISSIPATING AS OF 0300
UTC...WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW ALONG WITH A WEAK WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF INCLUDING THE AREA BEHIND THE OLD
COLD FRONT. THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS JUST WEST
OF THE TAMPA AREA...THOUGH THESE ARE ALSO DIMINISHING WITH THE
SUPPORTING DYNAMICS NOW MOSTLY NE OF THE AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS
AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. MUCH DRIER MID TO UPPER AIR IS SEEN IN
THIS EVENINGS WV IMAGERY OVER THE GULF IN COMPARISON TO 24 HOURS
AGO...ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGING NOW DOMINATING BEHIND
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIFTING NE OF THE AREA. NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GULF LATE SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SEE MIAOFFNT4 FOR DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING N FROM PANAMA CONTINUES TO COVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. MID TO UPPER TROUGH IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN LEAVING ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE REGION. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS 15-25 KT
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEING STRONGEST NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY
JUST OFF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOW DISSIPATING
OVER THE SE U.S....ALONG WITH THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST. ASSOCIATED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE NE OF THE BAHAMAS IS SEEN MOVING AROUND
AN UPPER RIDGE JUST E OF THE TROUGH. A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH
IS OVER THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WATERS BETWEEN 40W-65W. ASSOCIATED
SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 31N46W 20N55W WHICH HAS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 19N-30N BETWEEN 48W-56W. REMAINDER OF THE W AND
CENTRAL ATLC SFC PATTERN DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N55W. SMALL
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH IS ALONG 32N32W 24N23W.
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO ITS
E HAS AN AREA OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF
21N E OF 32W. UPPER RIDGING OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS
ADVECTING MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS EWD FROM 55W THROUGH AFRICA S OF
23N. SFC RIDGING ALSO OVER THE ERN ATLC WATERS FROM A 1034 MB
CENTER JUST N OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS.

$$
WILLIS



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