[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 2N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...2N20W 2N30W 1N40N
CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 45W INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 1S47W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EQ7N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE GULF TODAY IS A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE NEXT 36-48
HOURS. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1015MB SFC
LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG 25N94W TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. THIS CITY IS REPORTING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 28 KT. THICK LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKED UP AGAINST THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 24N92W TO 17N94W. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS A 60 NM WIDE
BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RELATED TO THE FRONT FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA
TO SE LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AREA ALSO AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER GEORGIA AND SE ALABAMA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
ASSOCIATED WITH ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NW MEXICO IS SUPPORTING
THIS FRONT. AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GOES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE CORNER OF THE GULF
AREA...BEYOND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY DRY
AIR/SUBSIDENCE. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS
THE STATE OF FLORIDA ON MONDAY. A SFC RIDGE FROM THE ATLC COVERS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHERE
UNSEASONABLE HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS PREVAIL. BUT...THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE NORMAL READINGS FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTM IS MOVING
NWD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE REGIONAL COASTAL
WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND THE SE
GULF WITH THE BASE OF A PRONOUNCED CENTRAL ATLC TROUGH COVERING
THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. UPPER DRY AIR RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA.
A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG SWLY WINDS IS SEEN
ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF THE SEA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE MOVING WWD UNDER AN
ELY WIND FLOW. SOME OF THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE AFFECTING
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS. MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST.
THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES OVER THE
ATLC MOVES E AND A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY TUE
WITH GUSTY N WINDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE AREA. MID/UPPER DRY
AIR COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 21N56W.
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SWWD FROM THIS LOW AND DIPS INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER UPPER
LOW IS LOCATED NNE OF THE MAIN ONE NEAR 28N52W. A BROAD UPPER
RIDGE IS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH AND WEST AFRICA. A BROAD
BAND OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS RUNS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
SFC RIDGING STRETCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE ATLC WITH A 1034 MB HIGH
NEAR THE AZORES. A SFC TROUGH...PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF THE
UPPER LOW/TROUGH GOES FROM 24N48W TO 14N57W. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH FROM
20N-25N BETWEEN 48W-56W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
MADEIRA/CANARY ISLANDS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

$$
GR




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