[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N1W 5N10W 3N30W 3N40W 1N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 12W-20W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 20W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N86W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
ALONG 22N90W 18N91W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONTS.  NELY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT WHILE 10 KT
SELY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES ARE PRESENTLY NEAR
45F BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND LOUISIANA.
IN CONTRAST KEY WEST IN THE WARM AIR MASS HAS 80F.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING
STRONG SWLY FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS.  A 90 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  EXPECT... THE FRONT TO
RETROGRADE AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA
ESPECIALLY OVER OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS.  NO AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SEEN.  THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA HAVE BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS DUE TO THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED SE OF JAMAICA NEAR 15N76W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED
N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N68W ALSO IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 55W-70W. EXPECT... THE
COLD FRONT TO CLEAR FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W 26N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1027 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N54W.  THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N38W
23N44W.  NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.  A LARGE 1044 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF NW SPAIN NEAR 43N9W
PRODUCING MOSTLY ELY SURFACE FLOW S OF 30N AND E OF 30W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N68W.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS ABOVE THE FRONT
WHILE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 55W-78W.  AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
40W-55W.  A RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS N OF 20N
AND E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA






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