[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE JAN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N10W 5N22W 3N35W 4N46W 2N52W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 11W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH THE UPPER LOW AND
ASSOCIATED ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE NW ATLC. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF ACROSS THE THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE CONTINUING ALONG 24N87W BECOMING
NEAR STATIONARY INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND A LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W TO MEXICO NEAR
25N98W WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE NW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ARE APPROACHING S FLORIDA AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
WEAKEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NARROW WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO W CUBA
COVERING THE AREA W OF 81W. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GRENADA ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS TO A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LOW NEAR 14N76W AND COVERS THE E TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AT ALL LEVELS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATES THE REGION EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THUS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY CLOUD AND SHOWER FREE.
SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE USHERED IN
ON STRONG TRADE WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC DRAPING A COLD FRONT
INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N75W CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE W ATLC ANCHORED E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N68W COVERING THE W
ATLC W OF 55W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM
38W-55W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND W
TROPICAL ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION
NEAR 32N38W SW TO 28N43W DISSIPATING NEAR 25N47W. A REMNANT
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N38W SSW TO 21N44W. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60/75 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N41W TO BEYOND 32N36W. THE
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS. DRY
AIR AT ALL LEVELS IS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC...THUS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA.

$$
WALLACE





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