[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE JAN 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N1W 5N10W 4N25W 3N40W 1N50W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
ELSEWHERE.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER NW MEXICO IS PRODUCING STRONG SWLY
FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF. A 90 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 24N85W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 22N90W 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
OF THE FRONTS.  NELY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT WED. LOW
PRES WILL DEVELOP OVER SW GULF WED NIGHT AND MOVE RAPIDLY NE.
SLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THURSDAY
MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN WHILE A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES E CUBA/JAMAICA TO
NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND. AN UPPER RIDGE ALSO DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST S OF GUADELOUPE.
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES ALMOST THE ENTIRE
REGION. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
BRISK 20-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE AREA MOVING WESTWARD UNDER AN ELY WIND
FLOW. SOME OF THESE PATCHES ARE AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO. THE N YUCATAN
PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND W CUBA HAVE BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS DUE TO THE FRONT. HIGH PRES OVER ATLC WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BRISK E TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN WITH GALE
CONDITIONS JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST INTO THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W ATLC. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 30W-50W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIPPING S
INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES. A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE ATLC. THIS RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N ON THE E
SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 30W-40W. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N72W
26N80W...THEN CONTINUES ALONG SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE RELATED TO THE FRONT. A 1027 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N48W. THE TAIL END OF A
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N37W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR
24N50W. MAINLY LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE FROM A LARGE 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NW SPAIN
DOMINATES THE E ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING E-SE SURFACE
FLOW S OF 30N AND E OF 30W.

$$
GR






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