[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N16W 2N31W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 45W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S
OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 36W-51W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN
10W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US AND THE NE GULF INTO THE
W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD AGAIN...EXTENDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W BECOMING STATIONARY AGAIN AT THE N GULF
COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED
BY NW UPPER FLOW. A JET STREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT ENTERS
THE GULF OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA  NEAR
THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
27N85 ACROSS FLORIDA OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE FAR W ATLC.
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE GULF...BUT ONLY
FOR A SHORT WHILE. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS
CROSSING N MEXICO AND ALL OF TEXAS...MOVING INTO THE NW GULF IN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE SE GULF
WITHIN 45 NM OF 24N E OF 88W BUT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE W GULF N OF 22N W OF 90W.

CARIBBEAN...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF THE ATLC COMBINED WITH THE
LOWER SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS ARE GENERATING STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY
SUPPRESSED WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N W OF 78W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND THE W ATLC N OF 24N
W OF 60W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N63W W TO
OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W THEN ALONG THE NE GULF COAST STATES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS S OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A JET STREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W NE TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 29N75W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH TO THE E EXTENDING FROM 30N64W ALONG
26N68W TO THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N73W. BAND OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THIS SECOND TROUGH
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF A LINE FROM 25N67W TO BEYOND 32N56W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC FROM 23N-29N E OF 74W TO COAST OF FLORIDA. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 24N58W N TO BEYOND 32N55W. WESTERLY
UPPER ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC E OF 65W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM A 1029 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N22W
WSW TO 25N65W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ
AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY E OF 50W.

$$
WALLACE


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