[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280523
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED FEB 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N25W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 37W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 35W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 11W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN MID/UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND THE N GULF INTO THE W
ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE AREA
OVER THE FAR W ATLC THROUGH A WEAKENING 1012 MB LOW OVER NE
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W WITH THE FRONT STATIONARY ALONG THE N GULF
COAST TO MISSISSIPPI THEN NE ACROSS N TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY NW TO W UPPER FLOW. A JET STREAM WITH
WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ACROSS THE GULF CENTERED FROM OVER
TEXAS NEAR 29N96W TO ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A SURFACE
TROUGH...SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS JET...EXTENDS FROM 24N87W
TO OVER S FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS COMBINED WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE SE GULF S OF 28N E
OF 87W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MOSTLY S OF 26N E OF 87W. PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
REMAIN OVER THE W GULF W OF 91W. ALSO AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK
1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N87W.

CARIBBEAN...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE OF THE ATLC COMBINED WITH THE LOWER
SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE TROPICS ARE GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS AND GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N FROM 78W-84W...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E US AND THE W ATLC N OF 26N
W OF 68W WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N72W TO
31N76W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY FRONT TO A 1012 MB LOW OVER
NE FLORIDA AND THEN ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS LIMITED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 24N67W N TO BEYOND 32N60W. A JET STREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OVER S FLORIDA
NE TO BEYOND 32N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM 30N67W TO THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N73W. BAND
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90/120 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N70W TO 30N62W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC FROM 20N-28N E OF 70W TO COAST OF FLORIDA. BROAD UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 4N46W
COVERING THE AREA TO 30N FROM 40W-60W. WESTERLY UPPER ZONAL FLOW
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGE
COVERING THE ATLC E OF 70W WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1031
MB HIGH JUST W OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N21W SW TO 23N70W.
THIS SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE




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