[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
6N10W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 44W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN
37W AND 42W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL BETWEEN
38W AND 43W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
2N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING FROM WESTERN KANSAS
TO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WEST TEXAS.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO CENTRAL/EASTERN
TEXAS...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEST OF 90W. THE FLOW
TAKES A DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN MEXICO EXTENDS FROM
20N100W TO 24N103W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A COLD FRONT GOES FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 29N80W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS TO JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EXTREME OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 30N88W
TO 31N91W...AND THEN IS WARM NORTHWEST OF 31N91W.



THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
TO CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS NEAR
16N83W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS THE RULE ACROSS
THE AREA...IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE.
MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS SOUTH OF 15N...ENTERING THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL WATERS...AND THEN SHOWING UP COMPARATIVELY MORE
PROMINENTLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SURFACE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE...
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE EXCEPT IN THE CLOUD-FREE AREA WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM
OF THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA BETWEEN 64W AND 76W.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N68W BEYOND 29N80W.
A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 28N74W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR
26N80W...CUTTING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF WATERS NEAR
25N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N55W TO 27N60W TO
25N67W TO 27N70W 26N74W TO 26N78W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A JET STREAM OF 70 TO 80 KT WIND SPEEDS IS WITHIN
200 TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N80W 27N64W BEYOND 31N54W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 5N TO 23N WEST OF AFRICA
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH RUNS
FROM MOROCCO AND MAURITANIA TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...TO 13N42W. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1029 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N27W TO 30N35W 27N42W 24N55W 24N70W
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 20N86W.


$$
MT


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