[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 3N18W 1N34W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
8W-21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 3N
ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WITH A JET STREAM
OF 90 TO 110 KT ACROSS THE N GULF CENTERED ALONG 28N. THERE IS A
WEAK LOW/FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SE US AND WILL
SKIRT THE N GULF LATER TODAY SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE SAME AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE E PACIFIC CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF
THROUGH 23N97W TO 26N82W. HOWEVER...PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE N  AND W
GULF NW OF A LINE FROM FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA ALONG 25N91W TO THE W
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N96W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1014 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN UPPER WESTERLY FLOW. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION
KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH STRONG
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND GALE FORCE GUSTS OFF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 17N FROM
78W-84W...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 50W WITH
THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION
TO OFF THE US E COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 29N FROM 71W-78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS FROM 26N-30N W OF 76W
TO COAST OF FLORIDA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF 40W.
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF THE REGION
HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS JUST INTO THE REGION
NEAR 32N32W SW TO 29N36W WHERE IT RAPIDLY DISSIPATES TO 21N50W.
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC
WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE MADEIRA
ISLANDS THROUGH 32N24W BISECTING BY THE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 30N43W W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N76W. THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE





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