[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270459
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N18W ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR
27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S46W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
150/180 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W-22W AND S OF
3N ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS PLAGUED THE GULF FOR THE PAST TWO
DAYS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS MOVED
OVER THE W ATLC. A WEAK LOW/FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SKIRT THE N GULF LATER TODAY
SUPPORTED BY A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS OVER THE SAME
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN HOWEVER
OVER THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N E OF 85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE GULF IS GENERALLY WESTERLY.
DRY AIR HAS BEEN RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH ONLY SOME UPPER LEVEL REMNANT MOISTURE
STREAMING ACROSS MEXICO FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED/
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF IN THE RETURN FLOW WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
AN UPPER HIGH OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA AND EXTENDS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED ARE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED OFF THE US COAST YESTERDAY COVERS
THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 60W WITH THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT
ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE REGION OFF THE US COAST. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 150/200 NM OF
LINE FROM OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 26N80W TO BEYOND 32N56W. THE BROAD
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC W OF 45W. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
HAS RETREATED N OF 30N HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N33W EXTENDING SW TO 26N40W
WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 22N54W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 23N.
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE E ATLC THROUGH 32N21W SW ALONG 26N34W BISECTED BY THE
DIMINISHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 27N55W W TO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 24N76W.
THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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