[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 2N20W EQ30W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 46W INTO NE BRAZIL. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150NM S AND 90NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN
11W-18W...AND WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
26W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 26/2100 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
N-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 26N90W 23N96W. THE BOUNDARY HAS BECOME VERY
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH LIGHT SLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AS
AN ATLC SFC RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUST THROUGH. A CLUSTER OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS S OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN THE COAST OF W FLORIDA TO 86W...WHICH SEEMS
TO BE NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK PUSHING THROUGH FLORIDA. OVERALL ZONAL
UPPER FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WHICH IS ADVECTING BANDS OF UPPER
MOISTURE EWD ACROSS THE AREA. HI PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE N GULF
DURING TUE THEN PUSH NE OF THE AREA DURING WED IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM TO PUSH OFF TEXAS BY THU AFTERNOON. RETURN
FLOW WILL THEREBY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM W TO E WED
INTO THU...SEE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST UNDER HEAD MIAOFFNT4 FOR
DETAILS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA CONTINUES
TO DOMINATE CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE MOSTLY
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN E OF 82W AND CONTINUE TO BE THE
STRONGEST JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. A BIT LIGHTER SE WINDS
ARE FELT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE A WEAKNESS IN THE GRADIENT
EXISTS AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT IN THE GULF. TYPICAL
PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING
WWD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED SWIRL OF LOW/MID
CLOUDS NOTED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL
MAINTAIN BRISK EASTERLY TRADES THROUGHOUT AND OCCASIONALLY NEAR
GALE CONDITIONS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST THROUGH SAT. SE WINDS
INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW PART AND YUCATAN CHANNEL THU AND FRI IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT CLIPS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA JUST
OFFSHORE FLORIDA. THE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
IN COMBINATION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ADVECTING SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N AND W OF 60W. FRONT WILL MOVE TO PSN
FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT AND CONTINUE SE
DISSIPATING OVER THE SE WATERS THU. A 1024 MB HIGH IS NEAR
27N58W THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS
THE AREA AT 32N34W TO 23N47W...THEN CONTINUES W TO 22N68W AS A
TROUGH. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYER LOW NOW NE OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ONLY A
FRAGMENT OF THE TROUGHING NOW EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N
OF 25N. E ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING ALOFT AND AT
THE SFC. THE 1031 MB SFC HIGH IS JUST OFFSHORE SW PORTUGAL AND
IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA S AND E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT.


$$
MCW


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