[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261733
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N20W EQ30W 1N40W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 46W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 10W-19W...AND FROM 1S-3N
BETWEEN 35W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 26/1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
26N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH A 1010 MB SFC LOW
LOCATED NEAR 22N95W. A SFC TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO S MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY E
OF 86W AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DOMINATES THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MID TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENHANCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. DUE TO THE UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT OVER THIS AREA THE RISK OF STRONG TSTMS EXISTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
GULF THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUE. A
WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SE
ALABAMA BUT IS STILL NOT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE
GULF TODAY. DRY AIR HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED N OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE N GULF WATERS AND THE SE US. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF BY THE COMPUTER MODELS
ON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA CONTINUES
TO DOMINATES CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE MOSTLY
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE JUST OFF THE
COLOMBIAN COAST. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WWD ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SWIRL OF
LOW/MID CLOUDS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE TRADES ARE ALSO
ADVECTING SOME LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF
NICARAGUA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED WELL N
OF THE AREA HAS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE E-CENTRAL
ATLC ALONG 40W N OF 26N. ANOTHER BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING
ADVECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC BETWEEN 26N AND
30N. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE EXTREME NW
PORTION OF THE AREA ENTERING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH N
FLORIDA. A
1024 MB HIGH IS S OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N60W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING W TO OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND E CUBA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE E-CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W THEN EXTENDS SW TO 22N50W WHERE IT
DISSIPATES AND BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
21N67W. VIS SAT IMAGERY IS STILL SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF
LOW/MID CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH. THIS IS THE
SAME FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS AFFECTING HISPANIOLA DURING THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. A 1034 MB HIGH SITUATED W OF PORTUGAL EXTENDS A
RIDGE ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL ATLC AND IS PRODUCING NE WINDS OF 15
TO 20 KT ACROSS THE AREA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ALSO PREVAILS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
MOVE SWD.

$$
GR






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