[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261129
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N23W 3N36W 1N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM
OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 20W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND S
OF 4N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 26/0900 UTC...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF FROM
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N83W SW TO 28N85W BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG 25N93W TO A DEVELOPING 1010 MB LOW IN THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR
18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
25N-28N E OF 85W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE US DIPPING S OVER THE N GULF AND AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN ARE COMBINING
TO GIVE THE GULF OF MEXICO WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH TUE AND
BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WED. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT REMAINS
OVER THE NW GULF WITH A 1013 MB HIGH JUST INLAND OVER S ALABAMA
BUT IS STILL NOT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE GULF TODAY.
DRY AIR HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL
AS OVER THE FAR S GULF. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS
CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA
COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN FROM ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND
PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY WESTERLY
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ISOLATED PATCHES OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA...OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF US COAST INTO THE NW ATLC N OF
28N W OF 70W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA COAST AT 26/0900 UTC. MOSTLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRECEDING THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA
WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM OVER FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO
BEYOND 32N70W. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 50W WITH A NARROW AXIS
EXTENDING N FROM 28N65W TO BEYOND 32N64W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS S OF
BERMUDA NEAR 27N63W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING W TO OVER THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF
26N FROM 30W-50W AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
REGION NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING SW TO 26N45W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO
21N55W BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH TO N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF LINE FROM 30N36W TO BEYOND 32N34W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB WELL N OF THE REGION COVERING
THE AREA N OF 15N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. THIS RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BROAD BUT
WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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