[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260528
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N15W 1N21W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED/MODERATE
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 13W-17W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 150 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 22W-20W AND FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT
CLIPPING THE N GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE GULF
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W SW TO 27N88W BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG 24N96W THEN S INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N95W. BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS SW OF THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING WITHIN 45 NM OF 27N FROM 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE GULF N OF 26N ACROSS INTO THE W ATLC.
THE UPPER DYNAMICS HAVE FAILED TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR TO
THE SOUTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE
GULF THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK PULLING OUT BEFORE THE
WEEKEND. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE NW GULF
WITH A 1013 MB HIGH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR HOUSTON BUT IS
NOT ENOUGH TO PUSH THE FRONT OUT OF THE GULF. DRY AIR HAS BEEN
ESTABLISHED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS OVER THE
GULF WATERS INTO THE 50S. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM N AND W OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER NE SOUTH AMERICA
COVERING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC GIVING
THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS...REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS
INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE N OF 18N.

ATLANTIC...
THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE US AND N GULF OF MEXICO IS
MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC N OF 28N W OF 78W. MOSTLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS ARE PRECEDING THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF COVERING
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OFF THE US E COAST DURING THE NIGHT
INTO THE DAY. THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 55W WITH A 1022 MB HIGH S
OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N66W AND A SURFACE RIDGE S OVER THE W ATLC IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE LARGE UPPER
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 30W-55W AND
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N40W
EXTENDING SW TO 24N50W WHERE IT IT DISSIPATES ALONG 21N60W TO
THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 29N40W TO
BEYOND 32N35W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A
1030 MB WELL N OF THE REGION COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF THE
CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ
AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BROAD BUT WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC.

$$
WALLACE




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