[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W EQ30W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR
2S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS
BETWEEN 16W-18W. NUMEROUS MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM
1S-4N BETWEEN 21W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN
150NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 31W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF WATERS S OF THE
CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N92W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THE WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N95W. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN
WEST FLORIDA AND 86W. SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THIS REGION...WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS NOW IN
BETTER VIEW OF THE TAMPA RADAR. THE REST OF THE FRONT IS A BIT
TAMER...MARKED BY BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
WITHIN 60 NM. SFC WINDS ARE NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH THIS FRONT
WITH ONLY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH BUILDING IN ITS WAKE FROM ERN
TEXAS. WINDS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAR NE PORTION
AND ALSO JUST W OF THE STATIONARY PORTION OF THE FRONT TO THE
MEXICAN COAST. THIS RELAXES FURTHER THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW AS THE FRONT WEAKENS WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY LIFTING
WELL NE OF THE AREA. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE DEEP
LAYER LOW JUST W OF THE GREAT LAKES. MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS
OVER THE GULF WATERS...WHICH IS ADVECTING A BAND OF UPPER
MOISTURE EWD THROUGH THE GULF N OF 24N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD MID TO UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR PERSIST OVER THE REGION
KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADES E OF 80W ARE ADVECTING TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WWD...WITH STRONGER TRADES AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER NEAR
THE COLOMBIAN COAST. MODERATE WINDS VEER MORE SE IN THE NW
CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF. MODERATE TO STRONG
TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED IN THE GULF SECTION. UPPER
RIDGING IS OVER THE WRN ATLC AHEAD OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW W OF
THE GREAT LAKES. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES IS SUPPORTING THE SIGNIFICANT PLUME OF MOISTURE
SPREADING E IN THE AREA N OF 25N FROM THE EAST COAST TO NEAR 60
W. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH NEAR 31N72W DOMINATES MUCH OF THE WRN
ATLC...WHICH CONTINUES TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
ALONG 32N43W 22N60W THEN STATIONARY TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N71W. THIS FRONT IS LOOKING RATHER RAGGED IN GENERAL THOUGH AN
AREA OF LOW TO MID MOISTURE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS HAS HELD
TOGETHER E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. 1800 UTC GFS RUN HAS
THIS AREA INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...AND SUGGESTS IT WILL LIFT
SLOWLY N/NE THROUGH EARLY WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. ALSO
SEEING SOME SIMILAR MOISTURE WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT N
OF 25N...WHICH SEEMS IN LINE WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH ANALYZED
ALONG 32N41W 25N48W. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
LAYER TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. MUCH OF THE E
ATLC IS DOMINATED BY RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS. THERE IS A SMALL
UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 18N35W BUT THIS IS NOT
GENERATING ANY NOTABLE WEATHER. 1028 MB SFC HIGH JUST E OF THE
MADEIRA ISLANDS WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.


$$
MW




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