[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N10W EQ30W 1S40W INTO NE BRAZIL
NEAR 2S48W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
180-200 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-30W. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF THE AXIS NEAR 2S24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS CLIPPING THE CENTRAL
GULF WATERS. AT 15Z...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF
ACROSS SE LOUISIANA EXTENDING SW TO JUST SOUTH OF TAMPICO
MEXICO. A 1008 MB SFC LOW HAS FORMED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE
GULF NEAR 20N95W. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A ROPE CLOUD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF AND A TINY SWIRL OF LOW
CLOUDS RELATED TO THE SFC LOW THAT IS MOVING SE AROUND 15 KT.
BAND OF SHOWERS/SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
IS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SE US. DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED OVER GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS WITH A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A SQUALL LINE IS ANALYZED OVER SE
ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH WITH A CUT-OFF LOW
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUPPORTS THIS STORM SYSTEM. MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC INTO N-CENTRAL
MEXICO AND THE N GULF WATERS BY STRONG WSW UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS DRY. THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE
TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF ON MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE EXTREME E GULF AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE OUTER BANKS AND
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...FLORIDA AND THE E GULF
GIVING THE AREA A MODERATE SE WIND FLOW. NLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT ARE FOUND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE LAKE MARACAIBO AREA
COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION KEEPING ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. SIMILAR
PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE SEEN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA
MOVING UNDER THE SE WIND FLOW. HIGH PRES BUILDING N OF THE AREA
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC. A
LARGE UPPER LOW WITH A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
N/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION
NEAR 32N44W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS SW TO 23N58W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY THEN CONTINUING ALONG 21N65W TO THE N COAST
OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALSO REMAINS
WITHIN AROUND 180 NM TO THE SE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
WHILE THE TAIL END MOVES NWD. A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED W
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 32N24W DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAIL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE THAT IS ALSO GENERATING NE WINDS
OF 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE AND THE CANARY ISLANDS.
THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH
NEAR THE EQUATOR.

$$
GR




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