[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N19W 1N25W 1N43W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 49W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE STORM SYSTEM IS CLIPPING THE NW GULF WITH THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOWARD THE TEXAS
COAST THEN S INTO MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO AT 25/0900 UTC. THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY. BAND OF SHOWERS/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IS PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO INTO THE GULF OVER MOBILE BAY TO
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS STRONG AND EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING
N OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS FAR E AS TENNESSEE INTO
THE NW GULF N OF 28N AND AS FAR S AS S TEXAS. THE UPPER DYNAMICS
ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE GULF FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC
COVERING THE GULF E OF 87W. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA COAST COVERS FLORIDA
MAINTAINING THE DRY AIR AND GIVING THE FRONT LITTLE MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS DRY AND CLOUDS
FREE.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OVER COLOMBIA N ACROSS
CUBA INTO THE W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED WITH
MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. SCATTERED/BROKEN LOW/MID
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS...REMNANT OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC REMAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W
OF 68W CLEARING THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM THE
RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 1024 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE S OVER THE W
ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LARGE UPPER
LOW REMAINS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING SW TO THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE E
EXTENDS FROM 26N48W TO 16N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB W OF THE
MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N23W COVERING THE AREA N OF
20N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO
SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO THE SOUTH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 23N WITH A CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 19N30W SW TO 11N38W AND ITS OWN PATCH OF
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE AXIS.

$$
WALLACE



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