[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 16W-29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 29W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ANTICIPATED STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ENTER THE GULF
REGION WITH THE LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AT 25/0300 UTC. A SECOND COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL INLAND
OVER OKLAHOMA AND N TEXAS. A NARROW BUT STRONG BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS PRECEDING THE LEADING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
N/CENTRAL ALABAMA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA INTO
THE GULF NEAR 30N92W TO 28N94W. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO MISSOURI WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH AS FAR S AS CENTRAL TEXAS AND MOVING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A STRONG SYSTEM AT THIS
TIME...THE UPPER DYNAMICS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM
TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA
TO OVER THE SE US JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND COVERS THE FAR E
GULF MAINTAINING THE DRY AIR AND GIVING THE FRONT LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...THUS ONLY THE THIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM.

CARIBBEAN...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH AMERICA N ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE GULF AND W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN MOSTLY WESTERLY
FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION KEEPING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FAIRLY SUPPRESSED.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS...REMNANT
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...DOES EXTEND OVER
HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FAR E GULF AND CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER
THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W CLEARING THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS FROM THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE 1025 MB HIGH ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE S OVER THE W
ATLC IN THE WAKE OF THE SAME FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LARGE UPPER
LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING SW TO THE N
COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W. THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE E
EXTENDS FROM 27N49W TO 20N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH JUST S
OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N18W AND A 1030 MB HIGH TO THE W
NEAR 30N24W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF THE CENTRAL ATLC
FRONT. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPRESS THE ITCZ AXIS WELL TO
THE SOUTH. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NE ATLC N OF 23N WITH A
CUT-OFF MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N30W SSW TO
12N34W AND ITS OWN PATCH OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 250 NM NE
OF THE AXIS.

$$
WALLACE


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